The Tories’ re-election lies with voters saying “yes” to the NDP.
A quick look at the popular vote across New Brunswick’s past four election shows the Tories win when the NDP popular vote hits eight per cent or more.
Political campaigns make for interesting bedfellows in New Brunswick.
One more thing to point out. Look at the green and purple bars – they’re both growing.
The ‘Other Parties’ category, which in 2010 included the People’s Alliance, Green Party and Independents, got 2.3 per cent.
About 0.8 per cent of ballots were rejected – in other words, ballots that were either purposely or accidentally spoiled. The same percentage were rejected in 2006 too.
That means 3.1 per cent of New Brunswickers walked into the ballot box and consciously chose to vote for something other than the possibility of winning. Interesting.
We hear a lot about the volatility of the New Brunswick electorate because it has spent the past 10 years flipping back and forth between parties.
I see something different in these numbers. I think the electorate has been very consistent – it’s the political parties that are misreading the message.
New Brunswick voters aren’t indecisive: they’re impatient and really, really pissed off.
Whoever wins on Monday night should heed the warning: Let the public in – or risk getting booted out.
Lisa Hrabluk is the founder of Wicked Ideas. Follow her on Twitter @lisahrabluk.
Wicked Ideas’ 2014 election series is financially supported, in part, by the New Brunswick Business Council. Wicked Ideas retains full editorial control of all content and members of the New Brunswick Business Council are not consulted or informed of Wicked Ideas’ content prior to publication.